1997 figures estimated Web based retail sales at $2.5 billion, which is merely one tenth of one percent of the total retail sales of $2 trillion. Despite dramatic growth, e-commerce is still in its infancy as many of the rules of doing business are changing. While 98% of the US population have telephones, only 30% have Web access. To achieve its full potential for both individual consumers and institutions, Web access must reach critical mass. This means simpler tools, more confidence in secure financial transactions, and an understanding of the dynamics of the Web environment.

The Consumer Market

Let's take a look at what's working on the consumer side and see how that might apply to scholarly publishing. User behavior on the Web differs based on the interactive capabilities and expectations for this new medium. Innovative companies have begun to figure out what elements are key to their success.

Dell Computers, one of the early entrants to e-commerce on the Web, proved the model that just-in-time delivery of hardware could work without needing a storefront. And Egghead software recently closed their stores to become a Web-only business.

For Websites to contribute to a company's success, they must utilize the unique capabilities of the Web to support the companies' growth. A recognized brand or a certain amount of free information will attract users to a site and the hosts need to decide what to offer free to a broad group of users and what to offer dedicated users for a fee. Repeat customers are more valuable than one-time visitors so the site must engage the user and involve them in a continuing activity or interactive dialog that allows them to contribute to the site. It is essential to know your customers by collecting good data on those visiting the site to further develop it and to solicit advertising. Users may find information interesting, but the key to success is supporting them in making a decision and then enabling them to act on it.

Amazon.com (www.amazon.com) provides considerable information about books and an opportunity to order them. Contributed reviews allow users to participate in the process of book selection. Despite its popularity, Amazon realistically projected that they would not be profitable for the first few years and would continue to invest in expanding the services offered and building their brand name on the Web.

The Wall St. Journal (www.wsj.com) has been extremely successful, due in part to brand recognition. Their data show that at least 25% of their online users do not have a print subscription which prompted them to develop and enhance services specifically designed for the readers of the Interactive Edition. They just added a travel service called Business Fare which includes online reservations provided by The Trip.com.

New services such as www.etrade.com provides users with the opportunity to manage their own portfolios in the tradition of Charles Schwab, while www.thestreet.com provides users with the intelligence to make selections and decisions for a nominal fee. Combining these two services would further enhance the user experience. Users are looking for answers, not just information.

Some reference publishers recognize that the real value of their content on the Web is to serve as a gateway or "portal". Portals offer users a one-stop-shop experience by providing an aggregated layer as part of their interface. Similar to indexes, portals are subject or function specific and add value by selecting qualified Websites, identifying content on those sites and enabling the user to link to them or perform some action.

For example, Solusource (www.solusource.com) is a new offering from Thomas' Register focused on providing engineers with information that will lead to the purchase of parts needed in designing products. Dialog's new venture (www.planetretail.com) offers a similar approach by cross-indexing product types from comparable stores by category. This enables a shopper to find all turtlenecks sold by those whose catalogs are included, (Eddie Bauer, Land's End, etc.), then rank them by price, link to additional information and order online.

Implications for Publishers

Users on the Web increasingly expect information to be current and functional. Once they identify and locate a desired item, they want to be able to order it easily and if it exists in electronic form, they expect immediate gratification by viewing, printing or downloading it. Libraries are working on delivering this capability for their users.

Indexes created by secondary publishers were the first item to be made available online via Dialog and then locally on CD-ROMs which now seem to have a limited future technologically. These databases are being migrated to Web sites hosted by various distributors. Primary publishers are devoting resources to converting their print journals to PDF or SGML formats and making them available over the Web. Ideally users want to move seamlessly from the index to the full text of articles.

Vendors such as OCLC, EBSCO and SilverPlatter are working to deliver this capability and have begun to use the term "integrator" to describe the range of functions provided. After searching the index, the user is linked to the full image of an article if there is a paid subscription or to a document delivery or interlibrary loan service to acquire the article.

The demands for a traditional publisher to migrate their legacy print journals, has prompted the larger ones to acquire the technology to find a scalable solution. Elsevier acquired Lexis-Nexis to facilitate their entry into electronic publishing and subsequently mounted their new offering, Science Direct. Kluwer just announced the acquisition of Ovid which brings them both technology and a host of databases from which to link to their full image content.

Science Direct and Ovid, along with Catchword and Highwire Press fulfill the function of an electronic printer. They convert and host files, providing links from the citations in the bibliography to the full image of the journal or to an index. In addition to providing the technology they offer 7x24 hour customer support which is new to print publishers.

Every generation of technology provides the opportunity to adapt to the new media by transforming information products rather than just transitioning them to a new format. When indexes first began appearing on CD-ROMs they were criticized for not taking advantage of the search capabilities for which they are valued today. Journals published in PDF replicate the print and do not offer linking from citations to full text which some will argue is the real value of e-journals.

Much of the demand for Web-based publications is driven by the need for access from the desktop. However, the potential of the medium is so much greater. E-journals are likely to go through a phase of deconstruction, whereby those features that are time sensitive, such as classified ads, news and rumors, will be distributed more frequently. Longer articles which are not likely to be read online can be distributed in print and the online version will link to subsequent correspondence. Letters to the editor will shift to letters to the author with an opportunity to create an online dialog through a moderated listserv.

Indexes and the journals they link to can serve as the focal point of services such as the one offered by EI Village to engineers. Elsevier's recent acquisition of EI Village and Kluwer's acquisition of Ovid point to the value of positioning respected indexes as the front end to a collection of journal titles. This speaks to the need for a user oriented approach focused on a variety of services designed for a professional group.

Community-based Websites will include job listings, access to the full text literature through established indexes, discussion groups, meeting announcements, a referral service, training opportunities, and other ideas still to be introduced. Members and their institutions may pay a flat fee to access key features of the site and transactional fees to cover document delivery or additional value added products.

Economic Model

According to Evan Schwartz, author of "Webonomics" and a writer for Wired magazine, there are new economic models emerging on the Web where providers seek to inspire loyalty with incentive programs like those offered by the airlines. This approach offers more promise than either the digicash or micropayments which have yet to be seen in widespread usage as anticipated.

In addition to the traditional advertising and subscription-based approach, creative alternatives are being tested. One of the initial hybrid models under development in scholarly publishing is the Peak Project (www.lib.umich.edu/libhome/peak/), between Elsevier and a dozen research libraries. Libraries pay a greatly discounted rate for large blocks of articles which can be selected from any of the 1100 online journals. Additional articles needed beyond the initial block purchased are acquired at a higher individual document delivery rate. This has been compared to assembling one's own collection of hand-picked articles which are then made available to the institutional community.

Document delivery has been an increasingly popular option for many years and will likely become more so in the electronic environment. The traditional indexes which identify articles in response to a user's query will be seen as tools to drive demand for document delivery. As publishers make their journals available through various distribution channels, the user is more likely to discover an article for which they don't have a paid subscription. This will support the migration to a more demand-driven model for journal articles.

Different subscription models will emerge offering current issues only with an option for a slightly higher fee for accessing back files online. Even if the user had print issues, it will be more efficient to be able to search and retrieve an article read several months before from an online file rather than attempting to locate the print issue.

The Future

Despite the fact that the proliferation of computers seems to have merely redistributed the printing function, there is a unique opportunity ahead of us. As access to data is made available anytime from anywhere, the Web offers the ability to replace local print files in various locations with fewer centralized electronic files. With an upcoming generation of employees who thrive on Palm Pilots instead of DayTimers, the time is near when software will evolve to locally store those files of greatest interest and bookmark with confidence those files to be accessed again at a later date, knowing they will still be available.

The basic Web ad today resembles a billboard which is a passive experience like television. Ads of the future will be more customized, focused on the users' interests and interactive in nature, requiring some action or involvement on the part of the user.

The Web is about information and communication. As we make the transition into the electronic world, our behaviors and habits will change to take advantage of more efficient methods of communication and workflow. Individuals and organizations will redefine the extent to which use determines value and what is worth saving.

It's a brave new world--full of exciting partnerships. Established publishers are faced with reinventing themselves. New companies are introducing innovative applications. The challenge is to make cost-effective use of technology and there are no models showing the way. The successful organization will develop an understanding of how customers use information in communicating with each other and enhance the process.

References:

Curle, David "Thinking out loud about e-commerce", Outsell's e-brief, Sept. 11, 1998 (dcurle@outsellinc.com)
Hagel III, John, and Arthur G. Armstrong, "net gain, expanding markets through virtual communities", Boston, MA: Harvard Business School Press, 1997.
Kiernan, Vincent "Paying by the Article: Libraries Test a New Model for Scholarly Journals", The Chronicle of Higher Education, August 14, 1998, p. A21.
Schwartz, Evan I., Nine Essential Principles for Growing your Business on the World Wide Web", New York: Broadway Books, 1997.
Wiley, Deborah Lynne "Beyond Information Retrieval: Ways to Provide Content in Context" Database, August 1998. (www.onlineinc.com/database/db1998/wiley8.html) Wilson, David, "Web Ads Aren't Adding Up", republished in the Journal of Electronic Publishing (www.press.umich.edu/jep/04-01/wilson.html)